Monday, September 13, 2004
Paul Samuelson on Outsourcing

I remember using Samuelson's textbook for an Economics course during my undergrad at IIT. So, was curious to see what he had to say. The New York Times talked to the 89-year-old Nobel Prize-winning economist and professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology:


Mr. Samuelson asserts in an article for the Journal of Economic Perspectives [to be published soon], [that the] the assumption that the laws of economics dictate that the American economy will benefit in the long run from all forms of international trade, including the outsourcing abroad of call-center and software programming jobs [is not true.]

In an interview last week, Mr. Samuelson said he wrote the article to "set the record straight" because "the mainstream defenses of globalization were much too simple a statement of the problem." Mr. Samuelson, who calls himself a "centrist Democrat," said his analysis did not come with a recipe of policy steps, and he emphasized that it was not meant as a justification for protectionist measures.

Up to now, he said, the gains to America have outweighed the losses from trade, but that outcome is not necessarily guaranteed in the future.

In his article, Mr. Samuelson begins by noting the unease many Americans feel about their jobs and wages these days, especially as the economies of China and India emerge on the strength of their low wages, increasingly skilled workers and rising technological prowess. "This is a hot issue now, and in the coming decade, it will not go away," he writes.

According to Mr. Samuelson, a low-wage nation that is rapidly improving its technology, like India or China, has the potential to change the terms of trade with America in fields like call-center services or computer programming in ways that reduce per-capita income in the United States. "The new labor-market-clearing real wage has been lowered by this version of dynamic fair free trade," Mr. Samuelson writes.

But doesn't purchasing cheaper call-center or programming services from abroad reduce input costs for various industries, delivering a net benefit to the economy? Not necessarily, Mr. Samuelson replied. To put things in simplified terms, he explained in the interview, "being able to purchase groceries 20 percent cheaper at Wal-Mart does not necessarily make up for the wage losses."

The global spread of lower-cost computing and Internet communications breaks down the old geographic boundaries between labor markets, he noted, and could accelerate the pressure on wages across large swaths of the service economy. "If you don't believe that changes the average wages in America, then you believe in the tooth fairy," Mr. Samuelson said.

Emerging Markets | PermaLink

Comments

My introduction to Economics was through Samuelson's book. I am surprised - however - to read his comments on outsourcing.

A key issue thats missing in the article on NYT is about the inevitability of Globalization. The article is silent on the "remedial measures" for correcting the anamoly. Does Mr Samuelson suggest creating trade barriers, thereby taking regressive steps - I wonder....would like to know your throughts Rajesh.

Posted by: Raghu on September 13, 2004 12:33 PM

1. Samuelson's was considered the best intro book on Eco till a few years back. These days Gregory Mankiw's or Dornbusch-Fischer-Startz or to an extent, even Stiglitz's is considered better.

2. There is some truth in Paul's words. Offshoring and Wal-Martization has accelerated global integration and as result US wages, on the average (like Per Capita) can only go down from here on. I don't think the developed countries per capita can improve from the current high unless they bring the rest of the world to a level where we can 'afford' to be markets for them. Some transfer in wages would happen that would result in US p.c decreasing first, for a few decades maybe.. before it sprouts up again.
What about the systemic defects in the US economy like the Current Account Deficit? I think the 'consumption' part of real US wages shud go down much more rapidly and increase the 'savings' part as a result - for the US to reach an equilibrium.

http://www.sathishvm.com

Posted by: Sathish on September 13, 2004 06:42 PM

It is inevitable with the advances in technology. Such competetion will ensure value addition to the services, as the low cost alone can not be a factor in future.

Posted by: cvrk on September 13, 2004 08:11 PM

See here for Drezner's--a University of Chicago economist--clarification:

http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001619.html#001619

Posted by: Eric on September 14, 2004 02:52 AM

Samuelson is no slouch when it comes to international trade. The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model throws light on the issue. See http://www.deeshaa.org/archives/2004/09/14/index.html#006320 in my blog for a few points.

Posted by: Atanu Dey on September 14, 2004 10:20 AM
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