Howard Rheingold Interview

ZDNet has an interview by Roland Piquepaille:

Inexpensive phones and pay-as-you go services are already spreading mobile phone technology to many parts of that world that never had a wired infrastructure. In terms of the people who had been left behind by previous technology revolutions, the mobile phone has already reached more people from more different walks of life than the PC or Internet did. As chips grow more powerful, even the least expensive phones will become cameras and Internet terminals.

The most important benefit of affordable PCs, phones, and bandwidth is encouraging the growth of literacies in the use of ICTs for the purposes of the poorest people in the world. The diffusion of the physical technologies is already being driven by the market.

Best Blogs Send Audience Away

LexBlog Blog makes a great point:

Your blog is not going to become all things to all people on a niche topic. If that's your goal, you're setting yourself up for failure.

Be a success by sending your audience to what's of value to them. That'll guaranty they'll keep coming back to you for more.

Microsoft's Zune

News.com writes about the new device and service which will rival iPod and iTunes:

Confirming weeks of rumors, Microsoft said it will launch music software and players under the Zune brand, though the software maker left plenty unsaid in its confirmation.

"Today we confirmed a new music and entertainment project called Zune," Chris Stephenson, a general manager of marketing for the software maker, said in a statement. "Under the Zune brand, we will deliver a family of hardware and software products, the first of which will be available this year."

The initial device will have Wi-Fi and use a hard drive to store music, Microsoft said. Stephenson's statement also lent some credence to speculation that the company's player will use wireless connectivity to share music with other Zune devices.

Michael Gartenberg adds:

So what's the challenge? Essentially there are three things.

Creating a technically competent challenger - Arguably this is the easiest thing for them to do. Apple's shown the way on what features the market wants. Less obvious are how Microsoft will differentiate with features like WiFi, that few mainstream consumers want and serve as a something that not only boosts for the bill of materials but also kills important features like battery life. Good news is the focus is on music and video. Despite the rumors, there's no game functionality included according to MSFT (despite the team's xbox heritage). That will make a big difference in terms of marketing.

Creating a lifestyle device - Microsoft is clearly going to face a battle here. It's good that they're building a unique brand and following the Xbox tradition, distancing themselves somewhat from Microsoft identity but that's not enough. Zune isn't a bad name (and yes, that's the real name it seems although i did like Argo a lot better). It's going to be hard for them to create the same level of cachet that Apple has with the iPod.

Creating a platform - iPod is more than a single device. It's a platform in and of itself with a whole eco system of cases, car kits, speakers and docks. No doubt that MSFT will work hard to make sure that they fill some of the gap directly with first party stuff, but this is one area where consumer choice goes a long way in making the platform a success.

Web 2.0 Revenue Models

Ajit Jaokar writes:

Web 2.0 is all about monetising the long tail. Often, sites do not monetise the ‘long tail’ : To recap, long tail needs lots of small contributions from many users(often contributed implicitly). To do so, the site must

1) Firstly, attract the long tail(many members)

2) Secondly, capture content from the long tail in a form that can be aggregated

A membership of thousands can’t lead to a valuation of millions! You need the numbers make money from to be web 2.0(i.e. the long tail)

Open-Source Big Ideas

Tim O'Reilly discusses four themes:

- The architecture of participation beyond software
- Asymmetric Competition
- How Software As a Service Changes The Points of Business Leverage
- Open Data

TECH TALK: Good Books: The Long Tail

Chris Anderson is the editor of Wired. His book, “The Long Tail”, has been one of the most eagerly awaited books of the year. He first espoused his ideas in a Wired article in October 2004. Subsequently, he started a blog which built on the theory of the long tail. The essence is captured in the byline of the book: “Why the future of business is selling less of more.”

This is what Chris wrote recently on his blog: “Hits Aren't Dead...What is dead is the monopoly of the hit. For too long hits or products intended to be hits have had the stage to themselves, because only hit-centric companies had access to the retail channel and the retail channel only had room for best-sellers. But now blockbusters must share the stage with a million niche products, and this will lead to a very different marketplace.” Think of hits as the head, and the niche products as the long tail. The future is about being able to monetise the long tail.

From the book’s description:

The Long Tail" is a powerful new force in our economy: the rise of the niche. As the cost of reaching consumers drops dramatically, our markets are shifting from a one-size-fits-all model of mass appeal to one of unlimited variety for unique tastes. From supermarket shelves to advertising agencies, the ability to offer vast choice is changing everything, and causing us to rethink where our markets lie and how to get to them. Unlimited selection is revealing truths about what consumers want and how they want to get it, from DVDs at Netflix to songs on iTunes to advertising on Google.

However, this is not just a virtue of online marketplaces; it is an example of an entirely new economic model for business, one that is just beginning to show its power. After a century of obsessing over the few products at the head of the demand curve, the new economics of distribution allow us to turn our focus to the many more products in the tail, which collectively can create a new market as big as the one we already know.

The Long Tail is really about the economics of abundance. New efficiencies in distribution, manufacturing, and marketing are essentially resetting the definition of what’s commercially viable across the board. If the 20th century was about hits, the 21st will be equally about niches.

The Economist wrote: “The niche, the obscure and the specialist, Mr Anderson argues, will gain ground at the expense of the hit. As evidence, he points to a drop in the number of companies that traditionally calculate their revenue/sales ratio according to the 80/20 rule -- where the top fifth of products contribute four-fifths of revenues. Ecast, a San Francisco digital jukebox company, found that 98% of its 10,000 albums sold at least one track every three months. Expressed in the language of statistics, the experiences of Ecast and other companies such as Amazon, an online bookseller, suggest that products down in the long tail of a statistical distribution, added together, can be highly profitable. The internet helps people find their way to relatively obscure material with recommendations and reviews by other people (and for those willing to have their artistic tastes predicted by a piece of software) computer programs which analyse past selections.”

The Wall Street Journal wrote in a review:

In a traditional graph of sales and demand, there is a stratospheric swoop upward where hot products and services are tracked, and a long descending line tracing the less spectacular performance of low-volume also-rans. For years, these outliers fell off the edge of the market or held only a marginal position, with minimal profits. These days, though, technology has allowed such niche interests to thrive, finding steady customers and rising levels of interest.

The long tail has lifted into prominence troupes like the Lonely Island, or bands like the Arctic Monkeys (popularized by MySpace, the user-generated site aimed at young people), or art-house movies like "Capturing the Friedmans" (made popular through Netflix, the online-based movie-rental outfit). Thanks to technology's power to target pockets of consumers, niche forms of cultural expression are reaching otherwise fractional audiences, and the fractions are adding up in ways they never have before. In the process, the economy is reshaped, and our tastes are too.

Blockbuster may have to devote its (limited) shelf space to 50 copies of the latest action blockbuster; Netflix can (theoretically) offer every movie ever made. Through sophisticated filtering, Netflix and Amazon and iTunes can make a deep inventory pay off by matching niches with consumers. Technology has shattered an aggregate popular culture -- the icon-producing kind. But it has also come to its rescue.

Tomorrow: The Long Tail (continued)

Related Entries:  [All]
TECH TALK: Good Books: Beautiful Evidence and More Than You Know [November 3, 2006]
TECH TALK: Good Books: Winning Decisions [November 2, 2006]
TECH TALK: Good Books: The Go Point (Part 2) [November 1, 2006]
TECH TALK: Good Books: The Go Point [October 31, 2006]
TECH TALK: Good Books: In Spite of the Gods (Part 2) [October 30, 2006]