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Saturday, March 4, 2006
Newsweek on the New India
Newsweek writes: "While China's rise is already here and palpable—it has grown at almost 10 percent since 1980—India's is still more a tale of the future, but a future that is coming into sharp focus. A much-cited 2003 study by Goldman Sachs projects that over the next 50 years, India will be the fastest-growing of the world's major economies (largely because its work force will not age as fast as the others). The report calculates that in 10 years India's economy will be larger than Italy's and in 15 years will have overtaken Britain's. By 2040 it will boast the world's third largest economy. By 2050 it will be five times the size of Japan's and its per capita income will have risen to 35 times its current level. Predictions like these are a treacherous business, though it's worth noting that India's current growth rate is actually higher than the study assumed."
Podcasting Monetisation
Business Week writes: "I believe the general notion here is that there isn't a huge amount of money to be made just on podcasts and that the disruptive nature of podcasts lie in the fact that most people will be doing them for themselves and their friends and families. That will contribute to the fragmenting attention spans that traditional media companies already face and it will provide a lot more shows for us to listen to."
MVNOs and MVNEs
Om Malik points to a Pyramid Research report which says there isn't much money being made. "Pyramid found that most MVNOs are loss-making to slightly above break-even and believes that there is enough fodder to question the MVNO model, at least in its first iterations. Pyramid concludes that not all MVNOs will achieve profitability and the next 24 months will either make or break MVNOs, particularly the prepaid-focused ones."
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It will be interested to see how competition for natural resources will effect the growth of India and China when they start to see affluence levels on par with Europe and the US. Many academics have pointed out we would need 3-4 new Earths to cater for such affluence and resource use.
I also notice that the time line for study includes the period that Global warming changes would start to have a definite impact. It appears bad enough http://maps.maplecroft.com/loadmap?template=map&issueID=901 but with Bangladesh and Pakistan next door any effects of GW are sure to impact on economic growth.
Posted by SimonJM