India's Broadband Tragedy

Shrikant Patil nails the problem: "The government had forecasted 3 million Broadband lines to be deployed by December ‘05. To date only only 0.61 million have been deployed. Private operators, likes of Bharti, Sify etc. have deployed 0.35 million and the two PSUs, BSNL and MTNL that control 40+ million lines of copper have deployed only 0.26 million vs a target of 1.5 million. Two main issues come to mind, the incumbents are too busy rolling out their wireless networks just bridging the supply demand gap. The other lack of aviable wireless broadband technology and the delayed commits of Wimax. To both these issues unbundling of fixed lines will be key. India’s urgent need, virtual Broadband operators, that can lease bulk Copper lines from BSNL and MTNL and provide broadband services. DSL continues to be the most compelling and viable technology for India. I have DataOne broadband service from BSNL, it works, is always on, have WLAN signal around my house and for most part a good experience. However the marketing, demand creation and provisioning can only be expedited, by unbundling the last mile to new operators focussed on deploying broadband. India’s broadband tragedy continues to be a blend of a control freaked bureaucracy and Public Sector Units exercising control to impede competition."

Peter Drucker Interview

WSJ has republished a 2000 interview with Peter Drucker, who died recently:

WSJ: You also said the scarcity axiom was becoming obsolete. Do you mean the idea that things have value only insofar as they're limited in supply?

Dr. Drucker: What I mean is that the scarcity axiom does not pertain to information. Let me give you two examples, one where they understand this and one where they don't. I will not give company names.

There is the company that gave you the map and driving direction you used to get from the Los Angeles airport to my home; you go to the Internet, and they don't charge a penny. They make their money from advertising, which you have to look at to get these directions. They understand that the scarcity axiom does not apply to information because they can keep giving away information and receive more revenue in another way.

On the other hand, there is a major newspaper, one I am very fond of, which believes in selling subscriptions to the online edition of the paper, which is a total misunderstanding. It should be given away to create a larger subscription base.

This first company understands information, the second one has yet to learn.
...
Economics holds that if you sell something, if you transfer something, you no longer have it. That does not apply to information. On the contrary, you have no information, basically, unless you share it. Sure, of course, you try to keep strategic information to yourself. But when your product is information, information accrues as you release it.

Cringely on Microsoft Memos

Robert Cringely suggests that Microsoft leaked the Gates-Ozzie memos and there's a lot more to it than meets the eye.

As I read the recent Microsoft memos, they seem to be lacking in substance. Where's the beef? I can see only two possible explanations:

1) Microsoft's execs don't know what to do.

2) The memos are a facade.

Microsoft's core businesses are slowing down. Google could become a major threat to Microsoft. What harm could Google cause Microsoft? Microsoft's greatest business vulnerability is Office. If a competitive product (or service) hit the market it could further dilute Microsoft's earnings since they'd have to lower Office prices to compete. Another great threat is Google could become an organizing influence in the Open Source world. They could guide the Open Source community and it could become a greater threat to Microsoft.

If I were Microsoft and afraid of Google, I think I'd try to figure out what they are going to do and how. These Microsoft memos look like a plan to do the same thing Microsoft "thinks" Google will be doing. By publically stating their plans and putting those plans in the hands of Wall Street, Microsoft is giving the perception they are doing the same things as Google, so Microsoft will be as good an investment as Google.

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DMB Phones

i-mode Business Strategy writes: "Samsung Electronics' S-DMB (Digital Multimedia Broadcast) phones are reported to be selling well, with its four models selling over a total of 250,000 units. SK Teletech also sold 150,000 of its IMB1000 model, while LG Electronics registered a growth in its DMP phone sales, with 50,000 units sold. Samsung has decided to have DMB as a standard function in all of its new phones next year. It is estimated that DMB/DVB will soon be as widespread as the camera function."

2006 Online Advertising Predictions

From 24/7 Real Media:

1. Consumer-generated media will become increasingly attractive to advertisers

2. Advertisers will continue shifting traditional ad spending to the Web due to increased Internet consumption and better targeting/reporting capabilities

3. Advertisers, cable providers and interactive marketing experts will collaborate to address "The TiVo Effect"

4. Brand advertisers will drive the next wave of growth for the paid search market

5. Best practices in localized mobile marketing will be perfected overseas in 2006

6. Online advertisers will employ holistic targeting methods to deliver better results and reduce reliance on high-profile, high-CPM ad buys

7. Technology and better data access will transform online advertising success to a formulaic equation

8. Japan will be the next frontier for paid search and interactive marketing

9. Mobile carriers will adopt new ad models to boost revenue beyond usage

10. Performance-based pricing models will demonstrate the true value of search engine marketing (SEM) as a lead generation channel

TECH TALK: Good Books: The Search

The Search box has become part of our life. Those among us who spend a significant portion of our time online probably end up using Search multiple times a day to find anything and everything. Satisfying our innate desire to Search has given Google a market cap of over $100 billion. How did it happen? How did Search become such an integral part of our online life? How did Google come to be? This is what John Battelle answers in his book entitled “The Search: How Google and Its Rivals Rewrote the Rules of Business and Transformed Our Culture.”

Amazon.com's review states:

This ambitious book comes with a strong pedigree. Author John Battelle was a founder of The Industry Standard and then one of the original editors of Wired, two magazines which helped shape our early perceptions of the wild world of the Internet. Battelle clearly drew from his experience and contacts in writing The Search. In addition to the sure-handed historical perspective and easy familiarity with such dot-com stalwarts as AltaVista, Lycos, and Excite, he speckles his narrative with conversational asides from a cast of fascinating characters, such Google's founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin; Yahoo's, Jerry Yang and David Filo; key executives at Microsoft and different VC firms on the famed Sandhill road; and numerous other insiders, particularly at the company which currently sits atop the search world, Google.

The Search is not exactly the corporate history of Google. At the book's outset, Battelle specifically indicates his desire to understand what he calls the cultural anthropology of search, and to analyze search engines' current role as the "database of our intentions"--the repository of humanity's curiosity, exploration, and expressed desires. Interesting though that beginning is, though, Battelle's story really picks up speed when he starts dishing inside scoop on the darling business story of the decade, Google. To Battelle's credit, though, he doesn't stop just with historical retrospective: the final part of his book focuses on the potential future directions of Google and its products' development. In what Battelle himself acknowledges might just be a "digital fantasy train", he describes the possibility that Google will become the centralizing platform for our entire lives.

The most fascinating chapter in the book is the last one, where Battelle looks to the future. Here is an excerpt which Battelle posted on his blog from the chapter entitled “Perfect Search”:

In the near future, search will metastasize from its origins on the PC-centric Web and be let loose on all manner of devices. This has already begun with mobile phones and PDAs; expect it to continue, viruslike, until search is built into every digital device touching our lives. The telephone, the automobile, the television, the stereo, the lowliest object with a chip and the ability to connect - all will incorporate network-aware search.

This is no fantasy; this is simple logic. As more and more of our lives become connected, digitized, and computed, we will need navigation and context interfaces to cope. What is TiVo, after all, but a search interface for television? ITunes? Search for music. That box of photographs under your bed and the pile of CDs teetering next to your stereo? Analog artifacts, awaiting their digital rebirth. How might you find that photo of you and your lover on the beach in Greece from fifteen years ago? Either you scan it in, or you lose it to the moldering embrace of analog obscurity. But your children will have no such problems; their photographs are already entirely digital and searchable - complete with metadata tagged right in (date, time, and soon, context).

The Search game has just begun. With it, we have seen a new business model emerge – contextual advertising with pay-per-click. The recent announcement by Microsoft about making its applications available over the Web as services, in part paid for by advertising, takes the revolution started by Google even further. The combination of broadband and mobile networks is creating a new world. While Battelle's book may not answer questions about who will be tomorrow's winners (other than Google), it does a great job in laying out the story of Search and a company which today threatens incumbents across many industries by making the right information available at the right time.

Tomorrow: The Google Legacy

Related Entries:  [All]
TECH TALK: Good Books: Beautiful Evidence and More Than You Know [November 3, 2006]
TECH TALK: Good Books: Winning Decisions [November 2, 2006]
TECH TALK: Good Books: The Go Point (Part 2) [November 1, 2006]
TECH TALK: Good Books: The Go Point [October 31, 2006]
TECH TALK: Good Books: In Spite of the Gods (Part 2) [October 30, 2006]