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Thursday, November 3, 2005
Indian Consumer Power
Reuben Abraham points to a commentary by Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley after his third India visit: "The consumption story — the organic sustenance of sustainable growth and development — casts India in a very different light. Don’t get me wrong — the Indian consumer is hardly a powerful force on today’s global stage. As the accompanying chart shows, India’s per capita income and consumption levels are about half those of China’s. But it is growth at the margin that always drives powerful macro and market trends. And the Indian consumption story is, first and foremost, one of accelerating growth off a low base. The potential comes from the structure of the Indian economy: Private consumption currently accounts for 64% of Indian GDP — higher than shares in Europe (58%), Japan (55%), and especially China (42%). India’s transition to a 7% growth path in recent years is very much an outgrowth of the emerging consumerism of one of the world’s youngest populations. The increased vigor of private consumption provides a powerful leverage to the Indian growth dynamic that is rarely found in the externally-dependent developing world."
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TECH TALK: Vision and Worries: Being Blind-sided
The third worry I talked about that evening was being blind-sided about the future. While it is true that one cannot really predict the future, it is also important to be able to anticipate the future. What I mean is that one has to build mental maps and models about tomorrow’s world so that one can instantiate the vision one has about the future. I read a lot. I also read widely. Over the past five years, this reading (and concomitant thinking and writing) has helped build a framework to look at developments across various technologies and their impact. Out of this has emerged my view on the future which I have converted into bets into what we are doing in Netcore and other companies I have helped co-found or invested in (more on this in tomorrow’s Tech Talk). As I result, I think of myself as the eyes and ears for these companies. It is almost my fiduciary duty to be able to place into context new developments that take place and sense how opportunities can be created from what’s happening. The discipline of daily blogging helps in doing the reading and thinking. It takes time to build the mental models for tomorrow’s world, but I do believe that I’ve managed to do this well over the past few years. The challenge now it to keep these updated as time goes in. That is why I invest an hour a day in reading and writing. If I let this go for a few days, then I’ll break what is a good habit built over the past few years. It is easy to break a habit but very difficult to build one. This daily time investment is perhaps what I think has been the best thing I have done over the past few years. I did not realise the value when I started. Now, I do. It is this reading that has helped shape my vision of tomorrow’s world and which I am now seeking to build out. My worry in this is that we get blind-sided by either technologies or their derivative in the form of applications and services that we did not think about. I am not seeking to build companies which we can create and sell – rather I want each of the companies to be the harbingers and platform of the new world that is being created. Whether we think of this as Internet 2.0 or Mobile 2.0, for many in the emerging markets it will be Opportunities 1.0. These were the worries I spoke about that evening. A few months from now, there may be a different set of worries. That’s the only constant in the life of a CEO! Tomorrow: Emergic Ecosystem Related Entries: [All]TECH TALK: Vision and Worries: Emergic Ecosystem [November 4, 2005] TECH TALK: Vision and Worries: Talent [November 2, 2005] TECH TALK: Vision and Worries: Work-Life Balance [November 1, 2005] TECH TALK: Vision and Worries: An Evening with CEOs [October 31, 2005]
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India being a consumption-driven economy is not new. However, the ratio of PFCE (private final consumption expenditure) has not really changed much over time. Certainly, not enough to justify Roach’s “increased vigor of private consumption” statement. CSO data between 1999-2004 shows annual GDP growth of 7.2% and annual PFCE growth at 6.2% (both at constant prices). If at all, other components (i.e. capital formation) have grown faster. Consumption growth is solid, but not spectacular. The more visible higher-income segments are growing at 20+%, thereby demonstrating “increased vigor”. Given the small base (1 million households > Rs. 5 lakh/year), their impact on GDP cant be significant.
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