|
Friday, December 24, 2004
China's Tech Rise
WSJ writes:
Dell's Efficiency
The New York Times writes:
iPod Ecosystem
Barron's writes that even as consumers buy iPod's to stuff into Christmas stockings, there are many other companies benefiting:
Exploding PCs and Appliance Relationships
[via Abhijit Nandy] Steve Makofsky points to a series by Leslie Orchard on "the relationship between appliances and computers, and how homes will eventually have multiple task-specific embedded devices instead of a central computer." Writes Leslie Orchard in one of the articles: "One thing I’m really looking forward to is seeing the PC explode and turn inside out, like the Home Motor. The price of processors drops, while their power increases. So far in computing, the processor has been a pricey central resource, demanding to be shared between programs and peripherals. But soon, it won’t be too far fetched to think of a processor as the least precious part. In fact, computers could get so cheap as to be given away, while well-built tools and appliances—more than just software alone—become the valuable thing...There’s a lot of work that would need to be done here to get the right balance between inter-appliance paranoia and end-user convenience, but I think that simpler task-focused devices isolated from each other but linked by task-centered agreements could go a long way toward killing the free-for-all playground environment spyware and virus authors have today."
Safe Computing
Bruce Schneier has a series of recommendations for users. These include:
TECH TALK: India Trends: Looking Ahead
Looking beyond technology, perhaps the most important event in 2004 in India took place in May – with the loss of the ruling BJP government and the coming to power of a Congress government, supported by the Left parties. The shock was so great that the BSE Sensex fell sharply to a level just above 4,000. That was May. Now, the elections are long since forgotten, and the index has crossed the 6,000 mark. Politics has taken a back seat as India gets back to focusing on growth. There is a distinct pro-poor bias in talk but actions still leave a lot to be desired. The greatest challenges for India remains the same – moving a mass of many hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty and tackling the population growth in the face of finite resources. Even though the Budget did not have many measures which should help the poor, there is little indication that the implementation of the various programmes has been changed to plug leakages in the system. The feeling across state governments now seems to be that providing free power to farmers is a great idea – for them to stay in power! So, we have a situation that even with a debt of Rs 1 lakh crore ($22 billion), the government of Maharashtra state has decided to implement its election promise of free power to the farmers. Look south and the Bangalore dream is in danger. The Indian Express ran a series of front-page stories on the sad state of infrastructure in the city, a government which didn’t care because it was elected by the poor, and a frustrated IT sector which can shout and scream but is not being heard. India will not get too many chances. The global herd is remarkably agile and can move its money and attention quickly. India has been the cynosure of eyes during 2004, but for it to continue we need to move fast on twin tracks: transforming rural India and upgrading infrastructure across urban India. We don’t need lots of fresh ideas – we are not the first country which needs to become developed. What we need is a mix of vision and will – we have our chance, and we need to now grab it. Not for a few pockets for India, but for a nation. Technology can be a powerful enabler – but it is just that. 2004 has seen many positives, but this is only the start. India has many lost decades to catch up on. I believe that one of India’s greatest strengths lies in the entrepreneurial ability of its people. There is still a lot that holds us back than propels us forward. Many amongst us will need to change their mindsets to take the risks that are necessary to build innovations and institutions that can be the foundation for a smarter, better and richer India. And for that we have to get a lot of the small things right. Consider for example the way we have our addresses. Try finding a place based only given a three-line address anywhere in India. Of course, there are plenty of people walking around who can be stopped and ask. But that’s not the solution. We have to do things right – not create alternate paths around wrongs. So, what will 2005 bring? As always, I am optimistic – I believe that a handful amongst us can make a deep and positive impact on the India of tomorrow. We have to believe and dream that a better India can be built by us, the people. Technology can now enable us to do things faster, better and cheaper. By aggregating the best ideas and innovations, we can build a platform for others to participate in bringing about the renaissance of a nation that binds us all together. Related Entries: [All]TECH TALK: India Trends: Made in India [December 23, 2004] TECH TALK: India Trends: Computing, Internet and Broadband [December 22, 2004] TECH TALK: India Trends: Outsourced Services [December 21, 2004] TECH TALK: India Trends: Mobile Phones [December 20, 2004] TECH TALK: Tech Trends: India Action: Build Infrastructure to Support BPO [July 29, 2004]
|
China's meteoric rise is definitely a world-changing phenomenon. China's also managed to consistently prove sceptics wrong (so far). To what extent China's rise benefits otehr countries (other than raw material exporters) remains to be seen because China intends to dominate EVERY link in the value chain that it can touch and it intends to leave nothing untouched. So much for Ricardo's famous theory of comparative advantage as the basis for mutually beneficial, sustainable trade.
One thing that china's definitely done right is industralize massively such that its lifted some 3-400 million people ouuta poverty within the space of a generation - an achievement unparalled anywhere in the world. The west took 250 years after the industrial revolution to achieve the same lift in living standards for a similar number of people!
And can India avoid (unfavorable) mention when China is being discussed? We may well have missed the bus on physical infrastruicture and manufacturing-based industralization to offer any sembelence of competition to China. We're at least a generation behind them on every front that counts in the socio-economic sphere (ok, so our polity is more democratized and that's no mean achievement but it counts for little when there's no food on the table).
Posted by sudhirWhat the Chinese have demonstrated is the simple matter that economic policies matter. Before 1978, China operated on a different set and was as poor -- if not poorer -- as India. Around '78, they came to their senses and changed many of their policies. Twenty-five years later, they are a giant that cannot be messed around with. India's economic policies -- mostly attributable to Nehru and his progenies -- have doomed India to what it is today. A balance of payment crisis forced India to change some of the policies but in general it was too little (and I pray that it is not too late.) Indian policy makers appear to be particularly impervious to reason. The two most important challenges that India faces are not being addressed. They are: the population and broadbased primary and secondary education.
Until we face those two problems head on, I am afraid that the answer to Sudhir's question -- can we avoid unfavorable comparisons with China -- is a resounding no.
Posted by Atanu Dey