Friday, December 24, 2004
China's Tech Rise

WSJ writes:


China is more advanced in the use of technology than many people know. It passed Japan this year to become the second biggest consumer of PCs after the U.S. It's closing in on 100 million Internet users, placing it second in that area, though it still has only half as many users as the U.S. And 15 million Chinese subscribe to broadband DSL service. That's more than in the U.S., though many Americans get their high-speed connections from a cable company.

In cellphones, China's 250 million users far surpass those of any other country. (Official statistics claim more than 325 million subscriptions, but they overcount business travelers, who get more than one subscription to avoid high roaming fees.) What's more, those 250 million users are still only about one-fifth of China's population.

The second big reason to pay attention to China's technological rise is that it's happening faster here than it did elsewhere in Asia. The transfer of marginal businesses from the U.S. and Europe to lower-cost operators in Asia has been going on for more than a generation, starting with Japan, then South Korea and Taiwan. China's government, companies, partners and investors learned lessons from the country's neighbors. They're also all moving faster because the tools of the trade -- manufacturing equipment, logistics systems and the like -- are all better than ever.

Emerging Markets | PermaLink | Comments (2)

China's meteoric rise is definitely a world-changing phenomenon. China's also managed to consistently prove sceptics wrong (so far). To what extent China's rise benefits otehr countries (other than raw material exporters) remains to be seen because China intends to dominate EVERY link in the value chain that it can touch and it intends to leave nothing untouched. So much for Ricardo's famous theory of comparative advantage as the basis for mutually beneficial, sustainable trade.

One thing that china's definitely done right is industralize massively such that its lifted some 3-400 million people ouuta poverty within the space of a generation - an achievement unparalled anywhere in the world. The west took 250 years after the industrial revolution to achieve the same lift in living standards for a similar number of people!

And can India avoid (unfavorable) mention when China is being discussed? We may well have missed the bus on physical infrastruicture and manufacturing-based industralization to offer any sembelence of competition to China. We're at least a generation behind them on every front that counts in the socio-economic sphere (ok, so our polity is more democratized and that's no mean achievement but it counts for little when there's no food on the table).

Posted by sudhir

What the Chinese have demonstrated is the simple matter that economic policies matter. Before 1978, China operated on a different set and was as poor -- if not poorer -- as India. Around '78, they came to their senses and changed many of their policies. Twenty-five years later, they are a giant that cannot be messed around with. India's economic policies -- mostly attributable to Nehru and his progenies -- have doomed India to what it is today. A balance of payment crisis forced India to change some of the policies but in general it was too little (and I pray that it is not too late.) Indian policy makers appear to be particularly impervious to reason. The two most important challenges that India faces are not being addressed. They are: the population and broadbased primary and secondary education.

Until we face those two problems head on, I am afraid that the answer to Sudhir's question -- can we avoid unfavorable comparisons with China -- is a resounding no.

Posted by Atanu Dey
Dell's Efficiency

The New York Times writes:


at a time when economists and politicians fret over the future of American manufacturing as China emerges as the workshop of the world, Dell isn't just defying a global trend; it's helping to set the standard. "When everybody is outsourcing - when everybody is outsourcing - Dell continues to manufacture in the United States because over two decades of fine-tuning, they've figured out how to do it cheaper and smarter," said Charles R. Wolf, an analyst at Needham & Company who has been following Dell since 1991.

Dell's decision to expand its American manufacturing presence, however, has nothing to do with patriotism. Executives here say their decisions are based on the bottom line as well as on geography; it is simply more efficient to stamp out computer equipment closer to the customer. "The reason we continue to manufacture in the United States is that it's the optimal place to do so, and we can do it most cost effectively," said John Hamlin, who oversees Dell's entire consumer line.

Technically, Dell does not take possession of a part until it is wheeled off a truck and into its factory, and yet that same part will be a component of a complete machine within a couple of hours. A minimum of inventory translates into huge savings on Dell's books, and it also means that when the company switches, say, to standard 40-gigabyte hard drives, it doesn't have to blow through weeks of outmoded 20-gig drives.

All of that places a huge burden on Dell's suppliers, each of which Dell rates weekly for performance. "To many suppliers, Dell is like having Wal-Mart for a client," said Mr. Eunice of Illuminata. "You love the volume, but not the constant grinding pressure on price, terms, conditions and timing."

iPod Ecosystem

Barron's writes that even as consumers buy iPod's to stuff into Christmas stockings, there are many other companies benefiting:


About four million units, some fetching upward of $600 and holding up to 10,000 songs, are expected to sell this quarter, twice as many as in the prior three months. Indeed, iPods are driving the rapid growth in the $4.4 billion portable digital-audio market and firing up Apple's stock, which has risen 200% this year.

Also on a tear are shares of several little-known outfits that supply components for the iPod and other portable digital audio devices, known generically as MP3 players. Among suppliers are Texas Instruments and Hitachi, though such work is a tiny part of those giants' revenues. But the iPod is big business for smaller companies such as Synaptics, SigmaTel, PortalPlayer and Audible, whose stocks have shot up in the iPod frenzy.

Synaptics, a leader in touch-screen technology, and Audible, which provides audio content for MP3 players, look to profit long term. Semiconductor concerns SigmaTel and PortalPlayer, on the other hand, get upward of 90% of their revenue from the iPod and other MP3s, making them vulnerable as competition continues to grow.

Exploding PCs and Appliance Relationships

[via Abhijit Nandy] Steve Makofsky points to a series by Leslie Orchard on "the relationship between appliances and computers, and how homes will eventually have multiple task-specific embedded devices instead of a central computer." Writes Leslie Orchard in one of the articles: "One thing I’m really looking forward to is seeing the PC explode and turn inside out, like the Home Motor. The price of processors drops, while their power increases. So far in computing, the processor has been a pricey central resource, demanding to be shared between programs and peripherals. But soon, it won’t be too far fetched to think of a processor as the least precious part. In fact, computers could get so cheap as to be given away, while well-built tools and appliances—more than just software alone—become the valuable thing...There’s a lot of work that would need to be done here to get the right balance between inter-appliance paranoia and end-user convenience, but I think that simpler task-focused devices isolated from each other but linked by task-centered agreements could go a long way toward killing the free-for-all playground environment spyware and virus authors have today."

Safe Computing

Bruce Schneier has a series of recommendations for users. These include:


Operating systems
If possible, don't use Microsoft Windows. Buy a Macintosh or use Linux. If you must use Windows, set up Automatic Update so that you automatically receive security patches. And delete the files "command.com" and "cmd.exe."

Applications
Limit the number of applications on your machine. If you don't need it, don't install it. If you no longer need it, uninstall it. Look into one of the free office suites as an alternative to Microsoft Office. Regularly check for updates to the applications you use and install them. Keeping your applications patched is important, but don't lose sleep over it.

Browsing
Don't use Microsoft Internet Explorer, period. Limit use of cookies and applets to those few sites that provide services you need. Set your browser to regularly delete cookies. Don't assume a Web site is what it claims to be, unless you've typed in the URL yourself. Make sure the address bar shows the exact address, not a near-miss.

TECH TALK: India Trends: Looking Ahead

Looking beyond technology, perhaps the most important event in 2004 in India took place in May – with the loss of the ruling BJP government and the coming to power of a Congress government, supported by the Left parties. The shock was so great that the BSE Sensex fell sharply to a level just above 4,000. That was May. Now, the elections are long since forgotten, and the index has crossed the 6,000 mark. Politics has taken a back seat as India gets back to focusing on growth. There is a distinct pro-poor bias in talk but actions still leave a lot to be desired.

The greatest challenges for India remains the same – moving a mass of many hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty and tackling the population growth in the face of finite resources. Even though the Budget did not have many measures which should help the poor, there is little indication that the implementation of the various programmes has been changed to plug leakages in the system. The feeling across state governments now seems to be that providing free power to farmers is a great idea – for them to stay in power! So, we have a situation that even with a debt of Rs 1 lakh crore ($22 billion), the government of Maharashtra state has decided to implement its election promise of free power to the farmers.

Look south and the Bangalore dream is in danger. The Indian Express ran a series of front-page stories on the sad state of infrastructure in the city, a government which didn’t care because it was elected by the poor, and a frustrated IT sector which can shout and scream but is not being heard. India will not get too many chances. The global herd is remarkably agile and can move its money and attention quickly. India has been the cynosure of eyes during 2004, but for it to continue we need to move fast on twin tracks: transforming rural India and upgrading infrastructure across urban India. We don’t need lots of fresh ideas – we are not the first country which needs to become developed. What we need is a mix of vision and will – we have our chance, and we need to now grab it. Not for a few pockets for India, but for a nation. Technology can be a powerful enabler – but it is just that. 2004 has seen many positives, but this is only the start. India has many lost decades to catch up on.

I believe that one of India’s greatest strengths lies in the entrepreneurial ability of its people. There is still a lot that holds us back than propels us forward. Many amongst us will need to change their mindsets to take the risks that are necessary to build innovations and institutions that can be the foundation for a smarter, better and richer India. And for that we have to get a lot of the small things right. Consider for example the way we have our addresses. Try finding a place based only given a three-line address anywhere in India. Of course, there are plenty of people walking around who can be stopped and ask. But that’s not the solution. We have to do things right – not create alternate paths around wrongs.

So, what will 2005 bring? As always, I am optimistic – I believe that a handful amongst us can make a deep and positive impact on the India of tomorrow. We have to believe and dream that a better India can be built by us, the people. Technology can now enable us to do things faster, better and cheaper. By aggregating the best ideas and innovations, we can build a platform for others to participate in bringing about the renaissance of a nation that binds us all together.

Related Entries:  [All]
TECH TALK: India Trends: Made in India [December 23, 2004]
TECH TALK: India Trends: Computing, Internet and Broadband [December 22, 2004]
TECH TALK: India Trends: Outsourced Services [December 21, 2004]
TECH TALK: India Trends: Mobile Phones [December 20, 2004]
TECH TALK: Tech Trends: India Action: Build Infrastructure to Support BPO [July 29, 2004]

Me
Entrepreneur, Mumbai, India, Emergic, Netcore, Internet, IndiaWorld, Sify, IIT-Bombay, ColumbiaUniv ... More [Write to Me]

- MyToday
- Emergic Ecosystem
- Netcore
- Emergic MailServ: Enterprise Messaging
- Emergic CleanMail: Anti-Virus, Anti-Spam
- BlogStreet: Blog Profiles, RSS Ecosystem
- Novatium: Network Computers
- SEraja: The EventWeb
- Rajshri Media: Broadband Portal
- Newsweek on Novatium (Feb 2007)
- Knowledge@Wharton Interview (Oct 2006)
- TIME Asia (Mar 2000)

Free SMS Updates
Indian mobile users can sms START EMERGIC to 9845398453 to get free daily updates on new additions. [To unsubscribe, sms STOP EMERGIC to 9845398453.]
My Writings
Affordable Computing and ICT for Development
India's Digital Infrastructure (May 2007)
Envisioning Tomorrow's World (Mar 2007)
Computing for the Next Billion (Jun 2006)
City Wi-Fi Networks (Apr 2006)
Microsoft Live (Nov 2005)
Internet Tea Leaves (Sep 2005)
Next-Generation Networks (Jul 2005)
Disruptions (Jul 2005)
The Mobile Phone Platform (Feb 2005)
Microsoft, Bandwidth and Centralised Computing (Jan 2005)
Computing for Broadband 101 (Jan 2005)
Tomorrow's World (Nov 2004)
CommPuting Grid (Nov 2004)
Massputers, Redux (Oct 2004)
The Network Computer (Oct 2004)
Reinventing Computing (Aug 2004)
Tech Trends (Jul 2004)
Letter to Arun Shourie (Apr 2004)
As India Develops (Mar 2004)
My Mental Model (Dec 2003)
The Next Billion (Sep 2003)
Transforming Rural India 2 (Jul 2003)
The Discovery of India (Jun 2003)
Transforming Rural India (Mar 2003)
The Rs 5,000 PC Ecosystem (Jan 2003)
Disruptive Bridges (Nov 2002)
India Post: Ideas for Tomorrow (Nov 2002)
Technology's Next Markets (Oct 2002)
Server-based Computing (Jul 2002)
India's Next Decade (Apr 2002)
The Digital Divide (Apr 2002)
The Real Wireless Revolution (Mar 2002)
Envisioning a New India (Jan 2002)
Emerging Technologies, Emerging Markets (Jan 2002)
The Indianised Linux Desktop (Nov 2001)
Mass Market Internet (Nov 2000)

Enterprise Software and SMEs
The Coming Age of ASPs (May 2005)
SMEs and Technology (Oct 2003)
The Death and Rebirth of Email (Aug 2003)
IT's Future (Aug 2003)
Rethinking the Desktop (Sep 2002)
Rethinking Enterprise Software (Jun 2002)
Emerging Enterprises and Emergent Networks (Mar 2002)
Web Services (Nov 2001)
Alt.Software (Oct 2001)
The Intelligent, Real-Time Enterprise (June 2001)
Enterprise Software (Mar 2001)
SME Tech Utility (Feb 2001)
Software and SMEs (Jan 2001)
The Intelligent Enterprise: Integrating CRM, SCM and EIP (Jan 2001)

Information Management
The Emerging Internet (May 2007)
The Now-New-Near Web (Sep 2006)
Mobile Internet (Aug 2006)
Video on the Internet (Jun 2006)
India Internet and Mobile (Feb 2006)
Rethinking Newspapers (Jan 2006)
Web 2.0 (Oct 2005)
The Future of Search (Mar 2005)
Web 2.0 Conference (Oct 2004)
Thinking A New Food Portal (Sep 2004)
Rethinking Search (Jan 2004)
India.com 2.0 (Jan 2004)
The Publish-Subscribe Web (Jun 2003)
Constructing the Memex (May 2003)
RSS, Blogs and Beyond (Feb 2003)
Blogging (Feb 2002)
Harnessing Information (Oct 2001)
News Refinery (May 2001)

Entrepreneurship
When Bad Things Happen (Jan 2007)
Ventures and Capital (Dec 2006)
15 Years as an Entrepreneur (Nov 2006)
Of Blue Oceans and Black Swans (May 2006)
Let's Build a Business (Apr 2006)
The Value of Vision (Mar 2006)
Vision and Worries (Oct 2005)
Bootstrapping a Business (Oct 2005)
India Needs More Entrepreneurs (Aug 2005)
Dotcom Nostalgia (Jun 2005)
When Things Go Wrong (Apr 2005)
My Life as an Entrepreneur (Nov 2004)
An Entrepreneur's Growth Challenge (Sep 2004)
Creating Options (Sep 2004)
From Employee to Entrepreneur (Aug 2004)
A Tale of Two Summers (Aug 2004)
Crucible Experiences (May 2004)
The Company (May 2004)
An Entrepreneur's Attributes (Nov 2003)
An Entrepreneur's Early Days (Sep 2003)
Reflections on Ideas and Entrepreneurship (Jul 2003)
Entrepreneur's Enigmas (Jan 2003)
The Entrepreneur's Delights (Sep 2002)
Life as an Entrepreneur (Oct 2001)
Leadership Lessons from Lagaan (Aug 2001)
Entrepreneurial Learnings (July 2001)
Entrepreneurship (Mar 2001)
The IndiaWorld Story (1997-8)

Abhishek (my son)
Photos
Letter to a Two-Year-Old (Apr 2007)
Father to Son (Apr 2006)
Letter to a 2005 Baby (Jun 2005)
The Making of Abhishek (Jul 2005)

Moreover
Facebook (May 2007)
Doing Education Right (May 2007)
Reflections from a Dubai Trip (Apr 2007)
Creating India's New Cities (Apr 2007)
India's Challenges (Mar 2007)
3GSM 2007 (Feb 2007)
Demo 2007 (Feb 2007)
A Tale of Two Covers (Feb 2007)
3GSM Mumbai (Feb 2007)
2007 Tech Trends (Jan 2007)
The Best of 2006 (Dec 2006)
Best of Tech Talk 2006 (Dec 2006)
Cyworld (Nov 2006)
Two 2.0 Events (Nov 2006)
Two-Sided Markets (Nov 2006)
The Rise of YouTube (Oct 2006)
Gandhigiri (Oct 2006)
Education and Reservation (May 2006)
Four Blog Years (May 2006)
Fooled by Randomness (May 2006)
Blue Ocean Strategy (May 2006)
Revolution on the Roads (Apr 2006)
The MySpace Story (Mar 2006)
A Presentation at PC Forum (Mar 2006)
Extreme Competition (Mar 2006)
3GSM World Congress 2006 (Feb 2006)
DEMO 2006 (Feb 2006)
India Rising (Jan 2006)
2006 Tech Trends (Jan 2006)
The Best of Tech Talk 2005 (Dec 2005)
The Best of 2005 (Dec 2005)
Trains, Planes and Mobiles (Dec 2005)
Peter Drucker: Management's Newton (Nov 2005)
India Empowered (Oct 2005)
Rajasthan Ruminations 2 (Sep 2005)
Building a Better India (Sep 2005)
South Korea's IT839 (Jul 2005)
Shift-Ctrl (Jul 2005)
Best of Future Tech (Feb 2005)
Multi-Model Minds (Feb 2005)
The Best of 2004 (Jan 2005)
On Watching Swades (Jan 2005)
The Best of Tech Talk 2004 (Dec 2004)
India Trends (Dec 2004)
An American Journey (Aug 2004)
Black Swans (Aug 2004)
A Train Journey (Jun 2004)
An Agenda for the Next Government (May 2004)
Two Blog Years (May 2004)
Rajasthan Ruminations (Feb 2004)
Technology and the Indian Elections (Feb 2004)
2003-04 (Dec 2003)
Random Musings (Sep 2003)
Useful Concepts (July 2003)
Dear Non-Resident Indian (July 2003)
Tech's 10X Tsunamis (July 2002)
An Indian in China (Mar 2002)
Disruptive Technologies (Aug 2001)
Innovation (Aug 2001)
Good Books

- My Business Standard columns
- More columns at Tech Samachar

Presentations
- TiE Bangalore (Dec 2004)
- BangaloreIT.com (Nov 2004)
- CIT 2004 (Jan 2004)
- BangaloreIT.com (Nov 2003)
- Pune CSI Open-Source Workshop (Sep 2003)
- Sydney ICT Workshop (Jul 2003)
- Netcore (Mar 2003)
- Emergent Democracy (MP Govt, Feb 2003)
- Vision for Digitally Bridged India (Dec 2002)
- India Post (Nov 2002)
- Open-Source for eGovernance (Oct 2002)
Recent Entries
Archives
BlogStreet
Syndicate
Powered by
Movable Type 2.21


Main - Feedback
© Rajesh Jain