Tuesday, December 30, 2003
Open-Source Development Model

Brad DeLong has a thought-provoking quote from a forthcoming book by Steven Weber on open-source software: "Ever since the invention of agriculture, human beings have had only three social-engineering tools for organizing any large-scale division of labor: markets (and the carrots of material benefits they offer), hierarchies (and the sticks of punishment they impose), and charisma (and the promises of rapture they offer). Now there is the possibility of a fourth mode of effective social organization--one that we perhaps see in embryo in the creation and maintenance of open-source software."

An earlier post features a longer commentary from a paper by Weber.

Software | PermaLink | Comments (4)

Open source is a punch of the others say charisma (founder creator and gurus), hierarchy or close knit group of developers based on trust and markets (the bazaar scenario of different wares) for the software products but the most enduring feature of the OSS dev is the altruism and world-wide culture it embraces and enhances ...

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The greatest administrators do not achieve production through constraints and limitations. They provide opportunities.

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There is no end to the adventures we can have if we seek them with our eyes wide open.

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How People are using Camera Phones

Textually lists out some examples:


- Women have been taking shots of clothing items in stores, then e-mailing them to friends for instant advice on whether they should buy.

- At concerts, instead of using lighters, fans raise their cell phones, and snap away - despite the standard ban on cameras - and hold them up so their buddy at home can hear, something referred to as a "cellcert".

- People have been taking pictures of washing machines or plumbing fixtures that need repairing, then sending them off to the repairman so he'll bring the right parts.

- Camera phones have been used by real estate agents enabling them to forward pictures to prospective buyers, giving a speedy edge in a competite market.


One can see a new culture emerging...

Telecom | PermaLink | Comments (5)

On a lighter side,
By book spies, to take pics of sleazy books.
Young kids looking at young girls.
Some one also used the camera to catch a culprit a couple of months back.
Everything comes with two-sides..... its just the way people use technology.

Posted by Anonymous

I also found a good number of bloggers using the cell phone cameras to give a visual touch to their thought about an incident that they are describing (like Jivha posting the rickshawala with his mobile phone, on his site)

Posted by Ravi

It would be very useful to have a text scanner mode built into the mobile-camera so that one can scan it over any printed information like addresses and phone numbers and save them for later use.

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I work as a Halifax Real Estate Agent in Nova Scotia, Canada and my online friends told me that blogs were discussions on specific topics which made me interested in searching specifically for a real estate blog. So being new to the computer, I did a search in the search engines on a "professional real estate blog" and I found your professional web blog. It is a very interesting way to see what trends and technology are happening in the real estate market in other parts of the world besides Halifax. I am considering a blog for myself if I can understand the technology of operating a blog and from what I see I am somewhat hesitant right now even though it was interesting reading.

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India's Dutch Disease?

Atanu Dey explains what Dutch Disease is (quoting from a website):


In 1959 a large reservoir of natural gas was discovered in the Netherlands, which by 1976 earned that country revenues of some $2 billion in addition to an estimated $3.5 billion of savings in imports. By the mid 1970s, gross corporate investment had fallen by 15% since the start of the decade, while employment in manufacturing had declined by 16%. The total level of unemployment had risen from a modest 1.1% to 5.1%, while the share of profits in national income which had averaged 16.8% in the 1960s had fallen to 3.5% in the first half of the 1970s. While the first oil crisis had a devastating effect on most of the western industrial base, why did The Netherlands, with its new-found fortune in natural gas, fare worse than most?
This process of de-industrialisation of the existing manufacturing base was attributed to the upward pressure that the energy discovery placed on the Guilder and the wage rate, and was dubbed the Dutch Disease. Since then, the term's use has widened considerably to encompass any situation whereby a country's apparent good economic fortune ultimately proves to have a net detrimental effect.

..and wonders if India could suffer from it: "India is a two-sector economy: the urban educated sector and the rural uneducated sector. The latter forms the base of the huge pyramid and toils away at a subsistence existence. The urban sector is seeing a boom what with BPO and ITES and all sorts of stuff. Policy makers, politicians, journalists, management gurus, TV reporters, and everyone and his brother are totally wrapped up in this incredible phenomenon. India, they all scream, has arrived. Having convinced themselves of that, they focus entirely on that part of the urban sector that is involved in the boom. This leads to a shocking neglect of the larger rural sector. Then when the boom runs out of steam, the country is worse off than what it would have been without the boom at all."

I would tend to agree with Atanu. The boom that we are seeing is in pockets of India. That is a good start, but we cannot forget the 70% of India that is largely unimpacted. India needs balanced, all-round growth. Maybe in the coming year, India's politicians will think about the rural populace since they will be voting.

Deeshaa (Rural Development) | PermaLink | Comments (9)

The Dutch have the worst luck dont they? Firs the tulips, then this. I agree that the emphasis on the pockets of progress you find in India are largely in the urban sectors. My question is that is the problem with the people (read entrepreneurs) who want to make money as quickly and efficiently as they can, which just happens to be in the ubran markets, or is there a much larger issue here which inlcudes the mindset, the politics, lack of decisive policy making etc etc ?

Posted by Abhimanyu Chirimar

In response to Abhimanyu's question, "is the problem with entrepreneurs" my position is a definite no. Entrepreneurs must be as rational, if not more, as any other people. They will go where they perceive the greatest profits. It is undeniable that the easy pickings are in urban areas. One cannot fault them for doing what you or I would do. The fact is that rural India is a hard place. Why it is so is a very involved matter. However, the short answer is that rural India is abyssmally poor. Doing business in areas of abject poverty is not recommended. But then what about the incredible business opportunities that we keep hearing about from certain management gurus? My advice for anyone who cares is "Don't buy that line." Or at least don't buy that line without also understanding that there are no easy ways of doing business in rural India. You have to create the conditions that enable you to do business in rural India.

But creating conditions for doing business in rural India is like creating a public good. And we all know what that means: no private incentive to create a public good because private parties cannot internalize the positive externalities of a public good. The answer is also well known: internalize the positive externalities. How this can be done I have outlined in the a simple model for rural development called RISC. (Pardon me for the plug for RISC.)

Atanu

Posted by Atanu Dey

Some wishful thinking and broad generalizations:

I am increasingly convinced that it is very hard to change rural india without changing the way development aid is disbursed in rural India. I am told that Panchayat has often been successful in improving the rural infrastructure; but from what I can see, Central disbursement and control of resources have often produced the greater good.

I grew up in Andaman islands and the difference in quality of between what central administration of development resources in Andamans achieved and what efforts in West Bengal (where we originally come from) achieved, is striking (this is of course anecdotal evidence. But what I have seen in the neighbouring states of Bihar and UP tends to support my hypothesis).

I would also argue that 'New Deal' measures (at least in the intial years) did more good for the rural poor in USA than almost anything else in the past century. Eventually, the system becomes too bureacratic and too involved in the perpetuation of self to do any good, but limited initiatives can probably have great impact.

I also think, generally speaking, people who reach the top of the pyramid in Indian politics and civil service generally tend to be less compromised and less susceptible to pressure than people at state levels. We need to figure out a combination of central control of budgets and state level management of projects that works.


I think RISC is a brilliant policy document. But as Atanu himself mentioned 'public good' can best be administered by the government

Posted by Kaushik

This is in response to Kaushik's last few lines.

Socially optimal quantities of public goods are underprovided by markets. To correct that market imperfection, the provision of public goods has to be subsidized. While the government is the most favorably place (usually) to provide the subsidy, the goverment is not the most able institution to provide the public good -- most notably in poor underdeveloped countries where governments are most likely to be kleptocracies as in most of Indian states. The important point to note is that the financing, production, and distribution of goods (public or private) are distinct activities. Merely because something is a public good does not imply that the government has to do all three. The production and distribution could very well be done privately while the financing is done by the govt.

So, I would argue against the government being involved in the production of public goods in most cases.

Now about central control of resources: doesn't work efficiently in most cases. India did that for too long. The USSR is another signal lesson in the dangers of central control. For central control to work, one would need an omniscient, omnipotent and benevolent dictator. Even the lord god will not do because by all accounts the lord god himself is either not omnipotent or is not benevolent. So we are looking for someone who is a lot greater than the traditional god to pull off central control.

Atanu

Posted by Atanu Dey

Frankly, you can't provide general growth when so large a percentage of the population is still focused on nonproductive subsistance farming. Productive farming usually requires only 1-3% of the population. Higher levels can be sustained only by taxing (dragging down) the other more productive segments of the economy (regardless, the biggest burden I have seen is in Japan, with 17% of its population still mired in farming).

How do you get people to shift to other pursuits? The US urbanized through the rural poverty of the depression of the 30's (the advent of mechanized farming drove most farmers out of business). That is a harsh method, but it may at some level have to happen in any country interested in full development.

Posted by John Robb

The development of an economy is a natural consequence of the shift of labor from agriculture to manufacturing, and subsequently from manufacturing to services. Note that the shift refers to the labor; agriculture has to go on still but with fewer people.

I have discussed a model called ADLI -- agriculture demand led industrialization -- in my Deeshaa weblog. This is a sustainable model that is still relevant in India's case. The model can be updated in the present context to "Rural Demand Led Computerization" RDLC, perhaps.

The RDLC could do for rural India was the institution of Land Grant Colleges and Universities, the Morrill Act of 1862, did for rural US. (Incidentally the act was signed by my favorite American president -- Lincoln.) The act donated public lands to provide colleges for the benefit of agriculture.

The idea was to remove education from being the sole preserve of the privileged and fortunate elite and 'democratize' it by bringing it to the children of farmers, mechanics, and laborers. The goal was the application of knowledge to issues relevant to farms, households, and factories.

Thus the land-grant universities were formed with the charter to teach, conduct agricultural research, and most importantly to provide extension services. The sons and daughters of rural America had access to education. Though it was initially thought that the kids would go back to the farm, farm productivity increases precluded that. But that was no tragedy: the urbanization of America was achieved by these educated sons and daughters of rural US -- they provided the human resource needed for the US to move from an agrarian society to an industrial society.

Now consider the Indian situation. The urbanization of India is not taking place because the rural population does not have access to education. Thus when forced to move, they migrate to urban India to be employed at menial jobs and live in mega slums. This has got to change if India is to develop. No amount of BPO and ITES is going to cut it: the only hope is to educate the rural population and do so efficiently and with no loss of time. IT has the potential to do just that: bring education to the hundreds of millions in rural India.

Atanu

Posted by Atanu Dey

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Broadband Home

Wired (Chris Anderson) looks at the trends driving the broadband home of the future, and the market opportunities it is creating:


The first is the rise of digital media. What started with the audio CD has suddenly become a clean sweep: DVD players now outsell VHS players, digital camcorders outsell analog versions, digital cameras outsell film cameras, and both digital cable and digital TV are poised to pass their analog counterparts in the next few years. Except for radio (Sirius or XM users notwithstanding), odds are increasing that the entertainment media you consume is 100 percent digital.

The second trend is a natural outgrowth of digital media: the home theater phenomenon. With the arrival of the DVD and its high-quality video and sound, consumers finally had good reasons to upgrade the rest of their home entertainment system. The result is a tsunami of wide-screen TVs, surround sound audio systems, and digital media devices. Today, 30 percent of US homes have a home theater, defined by the Consumer Electronics Association as at least four-speaker surround sound and a 27-inch or bigger screen. More than 2 million projection TVs with screen sizes ranging from 40 to 80 inches (6.5 feet!) were sold in the US last year. Nearly half of American homes now have DVD players. And sales of all-in-one surround-sound systems are about to surpass even stereo audio systems.

Finally, broadband has reached critical mass in the home. With a high-speed, always-on connection came a fundamental change in the way people listen to music, play games, and watch the news. Broadcast TV viewership is in decline; young people - the all-important 18 to 34 demographic - are looking to the Internet for their entertainment. What they first consumed on their PCs in a home office or bedroom they increasingly want everywhere, from the living room to the front pocket.

Which means the wired home is emerging in any number of ways. In one house, it might be a connection from the computer to the stereo - and suddenly all those MP3 files have rendered your CD collection obsolete. In another, perhaps a PlayStation 2 or Xbox in the living room holds the lure for online play; in comes the Cat-6 Ethernet cable or the Wi-Fi network, and the foundations of a broadband entertainment center are suddenly in place. Or in a third home, TiVo passion poses an obvious question: Why can't I watch what I've recorded on any TV in the house? Install a home network and you can.

This impulse, played out in millions of homes, is creating a brand-new market unlike any other.

Emerging Technologies | PermaLink | Comments (1)

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Entrepreneurial Mistakes

Eric Sink writes about lessons learnt as an ISV (Independent Software Vendor):


- Be careful about fixed-bid projects.
- Be careful about using bleeding-edge technologies.
- Small ISVs should do software and stay out of real estate.
- Investors don't like low-margin business models.
- A market with no competition ain't.
- The negative connotations of the word "middleman" are often deserved.
- All contracts must be reviewed by an attorney. No exceptions.
- Cash is supposed to flow from your customers to you, never the other way around.
- Small ISVs should build apps, not platforms.

Entrepreneurship | PermaLink | Comments (2)

Rajesh:

You seem to have linked to a different page about designing effective visual presentations ...

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TECH TALK: 2003-04: Blogs and RSS, India in 2003

10. Blogs and RSS

Weblogs continued to thrive in 2003 as more people found that publishing just become easier. While it is still not clear that there is anything more than pocket money to be made by writing for niche audiences, that has not stopped people from writing on the web. We all feel the deep desire to communicate and share, and weblogs are a natural manifestation of that. Of course, what also become clear is that it is easier to start a blog than to maintain it over time.

The real disruptive innovation, though, is that being brought about by RSS and news readers and aggregators. RSS is an XML-based syndication format that allows microcontent to be made available by software that can automatically pick it up, parse it and make it available without us having to go probing different sites for updates. RSS is laying the foundation for the Publish-Subscribe Web.

2004: Blogs will continue to be an important, parallel mechanism for us to get information and analyses from people we trust and experts in specific areas. Expect blogs and RSS to make their way into enterprises. Blogs have the potential to work as a bottom-up mechanism to extract and distribute tacit knowledge in employees. RSS will be used for syndicating enterprise events to our desktops and cellphones, and for creating information marketplaces which can connect publishers and consumers of information.

India in 2003

There are three key trends defining what we have seen in India in 2003: cellphones, BPO and affordability. Reliance Infocomm began on the wrong foot but quickly got its act together to unleash what has become the fastest adoption of any technology that India has ever seen. Indians are grabbing cellphones at a rate nearing 2 million a month as entry barriers in terms of upfront payments have fallen. Price wars unleashed by the various providers have brought down pricing of telecom all around. Watching Indians with cellphones is like watching a populace that was long suppressed of one of the most fundamental human needs – communicating with friends and family.

IT-enabled services now go by a new moniker: Business Process Outsourcing. As the world hires educated Indians to do their work, it is unleashing a construction and spending boom across Indian cities. What started in the year as a trickle has now become a flood, with every day bringing forth announcements of new recruitments by global companies in India. The work is not just the low-end type; Google recently announced plans to set up an India development centre with 100 employees.

Affordability is the theme underlying technology adoption across India. The cellphone boom has showed that if a product is priced right, it can tap into an increasingly affluent middle-class in India. Computer prices are also falling. Acer recently launched laptops at the Rs 40,000 price point in India. Be it a Barista or a Big Bazaar, everyone’s joining the game Wal-mart pioneered worldwide: everyday low prices. Increasing competition thanks to the opening up of many closed markets and technology in the form of better supply chain management are helping reduce inefficiencies in Indian supply chains.

All of this is making the world stand up and take notice of India: both as a provider of low-cost services and a large market. Incomes in urban India are rising, and so is the confidence among Indians. For the first time in recent memory, there is a definite feeling that India’s best years lie ahead.

Tomorrow: The World in 2004

Related Entries:  [All]
TECH TALK: 2003-04: India in 2004 (Part 2) [January 2, 2004]
TECH TALK: 2003-04: India in 2004 [January 1, 2004]
TECH TALK: 2003-04: The World in 2004 [December 31, 2003]
TECH TALK: 2003-04: Web Services, Social Networking [December 29, 2003]
TECH TALK: 2003-04: Search, Linux [December 26, 2003]

Tech Talk | PermaLink | Comments (3)

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