Emergic: December 9, 2003 Archives

2003-04: Feedback Invited

I will be doing a Tech Talk series at the end of the year on some of the important technology developments of 2003 and looking ahead to 2004. Your feedback is invited on what you think are the most important technologies that are shaping up. I want to take up two contexts: one is of course the global view, and the second is from the vantage point of emerging markets, especially what we are seeing in India.

This Blog | PermaLink | Comments (16)

Hi Rajesh, Here are some things that I think really took off in 2003:

* IMAP

* Server-side fee-based email filtering (for viruses and spam)

* Bayesian filtering of all types of data (i.e., not just for spam/non-spam separation)

* The Mozilla Project

* Gmane.org and the rebirth of NNTP in general

* CSS, XHTML, PHP

* Getting open-source work done by offering bounties such as the ones at http://www.markshuttleworth.com/bounty.html

* Moving away from Microsoft (this is reflected in MSFT stock price which has not moved up with the rest of the market)

* Individuals moving away from maitaining their own web or email servers because the overhead is too great.

* Blogs and Syndication (but you already know that!)

Posted by Nancy McGough

Wireless Broadband using 802.11 802.16 and 802.20

Posted by Nitin

- Broadband would shape in big way specifically VoIP, WiFi.

- Social Networking

- Blogs and Syndication.

- RFID

- Open Source Software

- Colloborative Software (Chandeler)

In India

- Open source would play a big role

- Localization/Indianization of essential packages

Posted by Rajan

The confluence of various technologies to link several devices is finally happening with Media Center PCs

A haptic interface for the mobile telephone:
www.myorigo.com

Posted by Venu

This is interesting...
-Media independent publishing. Just as you have Write once, Run everywhere(JAVA), you would move to Create once(content), publish everywhere(hard copy, web, e-books, PDA's, mobiles)
-Many more games and applications being written for the mobile devices(PDA's and Phones)
-Phones and PDA's would get merged. I think PDA companies might lose out on this
-The viruses for mobile phones would become more visible be seen and consequently new business oppurtunities to address these issues.
-Wireless LAN's and connectivity to grow exponentially

India specific:
-Localisation of software to get more prominent as e-governance initiatives gather momentum
-More back office operations to be outsourced to India. Enterprebeurs would identify new business functions that have the potential to be outsourced

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HP's Thin Clients

San Jose Mercury News writes about "a new device that can replicate a Windows desktop personal computer but is simpler for companies to deploy."

The HP Consolidated Client is a computer in that it comes with a keyboard, display and mouse. But the machine is a so-called "thin client'' because it has no disk drive storage. Rather, it connects over a network to a central computer called a server to access all software.

As such, the machine resembles others being promoted by competitors. Sun Microsystems' Sun Ray, for instance, works in a similar fashion. But the HP machine differs in that it can run Windows and any Windows software applications, said Nick van der Zweep, director of utility computing at Palo Alto-based HP.

Sitting at an HP Client, workers can log in with a password and immediately gain access to all their personal e-mail and files stored on a specific server "blade,'' a small data center computer that is dedicated to individual employees. When someone is not logged in, the server blade is available to do other computing jobs.

Van der Zweep said this kind of computer is more convenient for computer administrators because they no longer need to worry about moving a computer if an employee relocates to another part of a building. Nor do they have to worry about users damaging their machines by loading unauthorized software on them.

It will be interesting to see if HP pushes this aggressively. Like Sun, I think the mistake it is making is that it is tryingto target the developed makrets with these solutions when the real opportunity is to use the thin clients as the base for an affordable computing platform in emerging markets.

Thin Client-Thick Server | PermaLink | Comments (39)

Firms in developed countries rarely ever make developing markets as their primary target. Their goal is developed markets. The products and solutions created are then opportunistically used in developing markets. Take the cell phone for instance. The developing markets are only incidental beneficiaries of a technology that was primarily for rich countries. The same story can be told about a whole range of products -- from pharmaceuticals to laptops.

The underlying economic principle is that of a large domestic market being central to the development of solutions.

Posted by Atanu Dey

It is deja vu all over again, as Yogi Berra said. All this thin-client thick-server solutions are the reincarnated 'main-frame supporting a bunch of terminals' actually. The reasons for this incarnation is different from the previous one, of course. In the past, it was primarily motivated by the fact that hardware was expensive; now it is because system support and software is expensive.

The primary reason why the client-server solution is appropriate for emerging markets is clearly because hardware/software is still expensive relative to incomes.

Posted by Atanu Dey

It will be interesting to see how HP "positions" the product; even in developed markets Sun Ray failed because of software licensing; to make Sun Ray run multiple services (Linux, Windows, Solaris) the software was so expensive that it was cheaper to buy high-end PC's!

Posted by Sadagopan

Atanu's points are well taken in that the new technology products are typically not catered to developing markets. But there in lies the mistake of thinking very parochially and force fitting a solution that is not suitable for the market (in a developing country).
Take the example of UTStarcom, a US telecom manufacturer, that has developed products for Chinese markets and has had growth rate of 100% during the worst slump in the telecom industry. Other examples would be companies like Atrica, World Wide Packets, etc. who are trying to sell Metro Ethernet solutions in devloping countries in Asia and Eastern Europe.
While TDMA, CDMA and GSM made a lot of sense for the wireless industry, WLL based fixed wireless makes a lot of sense for developing countries. The market for WLL is very small in developed countries is fairly small - most of the sales have to be to developing countries.
India has the golden opportunity to establish a foothold in the low cost software/hardware computers by way of thin client thick server.

Posted by Ninad Mehta

While the developed countries have customers with deep pockets it is the people with low income who seem to be asking can you give us what we want ? The conditions in countries like India and China are catalysts for adaptation of the technology suitable to them. A classic example is SMSing on mobiles in India. While it meant cost saving for some, many realised that it is conveniently saving them precious time. Many in daily office life need to just get a message across instead of holding lengthy conversations on the mobile phone.

The advanced developments in the IT sector has gone ahead of the human needs. Like a cart before the horse it is the consumer who should be the motive for the product design and development and not the technology for technology's sake itself.

Some products are great innovations but the cost of its production is prohibitive to end users. India should follow the example of USA's mass prodution assembly lines which set the trend for low cost manufacture of quality products. Only then we can realise that it is not impossible to make low cost PCs and other devices affordable to the Indian consumer.

In software development also it is quite possible to develop and price them low. We cant forget we have a market of one sixth of the world to be exploited. Similar was the concept of K. Nanadakumar,CEO of SunTech in Kerala, who single handedly developed a billing and accounting software for DoT [BSNL] in 1990. The key to his success was its simplicity and low pricing making it ideal for Indian users in the private and government sectors. His company, now a global entity, showed an impressive revenue of 6 million in 2001-02.

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InfoWorld writes that the future of enterprise collaboration is based on expanded reach with less reliance on all-in-one solutions:

Whatever the future of enterprise collaboration may hold, it will never be as dramatic a sea change as in the past. When Lotus Notes debuted in 1989, it was a radical departure from the prevailing norms of electronic collaboration. By combining rich development tools with the well-established concept of e-mail, it unleashed a flurry of competing attempts at developing the ICE (integrated collaboration environment).

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Enterprise Software | PermaLink | Comments (0)

eTailing comes of Age

WSJ writes about how the holiday season is shaping up for the lucky ones who survived:

Some small Web-only retailers refused to die. A handful in unlikely categories such as jewelry, shoes and luggage are profitable and growing far more quickly than their offline counterparts. These specialty online retailers are prospering at a time when overall online sales are booming.

Consumers are expected to spend $12.2 billion online this year in the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas period, up 42% from last year, according to Forrester Research of Cambridge, Mass. The growth reflects a steady shift of retail spending to the online world, as consumers grow more comfortable with the Internet and the spread of high-speed home connections makes browsing and ordering simpler. Online shopping also tends to be more weather-proof; many snowbound Northeasterners ventured out into cyberspace instead of the elements to continue their holiday shopping this past weekend.

Still, a mere 4.5% of total retail spending is expected online this year, compared with 3.6% in 2002. But even the small shift in retail sales represents a combined billions of dollars for Internet retailers.

General | PermaLink | Comments (0)

Nokia 6600

Powerpage has an extensive review of Nokia's new "all-in-one organizer, information manager, and mobile communicator."

It is high time that I dispensed with my nearly-three-year-old Motorola L-series cellphone and got something better. The choice seems to be between the Handspring Treo 600 and this new Nokia phone. Or, maybe I should look at one of the Reliance colour CDMA phones, given that they can also work as modems in most Indian cities. Any ideas?

Telecom | PermaLink | Comments (27)

Since the title reads Nokia 6600, I am guessing you are leaning towards it:-).
I have seen and used a lot of phones from Nokia including their communicator series, no complaints yet. Can't speak for the Treo as I have never used it, but the CNET ratings ratings seem pretty good.
The Treo Form factor looks better than the nokia's! But, I would still go with a nokia.

Posted by Prakash S

Nokia is the most stable one around, in my experience with handsets.

Posted by AGD

I think you should seriously consider the SonyEricsson P900. Have been using the P800 and it works like wonders. The updated version is slimmer, sleeker and with better software including 20 minutes of video recording on the built in memory. Nokia has consistently been falling in terms of innovation, that s why rivals like SonyEricsson have been steadily stealing their market share.

Posted by Tushar Jiwarajka

Hi,

In GSM I would prefer Palm Treo as its a true PDA Phone but I find the keyboard very clumsy. You can install all possible softwares on it and play with it.

Nokia comes with Symbian but have heard it has limited support for third party software and without touch screen and keyboard so using it as a PDA becomes clumsy. India Nokia has proved its signal capacity. Nokia 6600 has 32mb memory card, have no clue about higher capacities

Sony Ericsson P900 is another great choice with touch screen, Symbian with ability to install any Java app and a on screen kbd and decent graffiti makes it a great choice. Has excellent audio quality and can also be used as a MP3 player or internet radio. Expansion cards are available in various capacities at a good cost.

Camera is kind of redundant as the quality is not something you want to cherish, decent for random clicks.

All the phones now come with GPRS capability depending on the speed of the modem inside the phone you can get connectivity of 14.4 K to 40K for a monthly subscription of about Rs 99.

If going in for a CDMA phone then any color clampshell phone will be good as you are offered little choice. I havent seen the browser in color phones but in the std reliance phones its very clumsy.

The best part above all is that all of them let you make calls and send SMS which one generally intends to use it for.

Hope these pointers help, but I guess you should just buy what your heart says more than what specs and reviews coz these features will be used at seldom.

Harsh

Posted by Harsh

Rajesh,

The Nokia phone is a good choice but do you need a Camera phone? A Treo may be a better option since there are thousands of applications available for the Palm. Including Mail clients, browsers, vnc viewers, etc.

Also the Nokia phone which I have Nokia 3100 has a heating problem, it heats up if you talk for 10 minutes. You may need to check if that problem is fixed in 6600.

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European Business Innovation Awards

From WSJ:

Gold Winner: Network365 Ltd., Ireland
Silver Winner: Tribeka Ltd., U.K.
Bronze Winner: Civil Registration Modernization Program, Ireland
Honorable Mention: Concept Bois Technologie SA, Switzerland

CATEGORY WINNERS

Business Applications of IT Services Winners (tie): Civil Registration Modernization Program, Ireland, SAP AG, Germany

Consumer Marketing Winner: Lavandoo SA, Switzerland

Energy Winner: Concept Bois Technologie SA, Switzerland

Finance Winner: Network365 Ltd., Ireland
Runner-Up: Celpay Holdings, Netherlands

Transport-Logistics Winner: Tribeka Ltd., U.K.

From the introduction: "Emboldened by rising sales of games, ringtones and other digital content, cellphone operators across the world are rolling out services that allow consumers to electronically purchase physical goods, such as chocolates, concert tickets and books, using their handsets...This year, two innovators in mobile commerce captured top spots in The Wall Street Journal Europe's European Innovation Awards, which are presented in association with Accenture. Network365 Ltd. of Dublin is the overall Gold Winner in Business and Winner of the Finance category. And Celpay Holdings of the Netherlands is Runner-Up in Finance."

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TECH TALK: My Mental Model: Creating Disruptive Innovations…(Part 2)

How does one extract growth from nonconsumption? Christensen and Raynor write in their book about the four elements of new-market disruption:

1. The target customers are trying to get a job done, but because they lack the money or skill, a simple, inexpensive solution has been beyond reach.

2. These customers will compare the disruptive product to having nothing at all. As a result, they are delighted to buy it even though it may not be as good as other products available at high prices to current users with deeper expertise in the original value network. The performance hurdle required to delight such new-market customers is quite modest.

3. The technology that enables the disruption might be quite sophisticated, but disruptors deploy it to make the purchase and use of the product simple, convenient and foolproof. Is the “foolproofedness” that creates new growth by enabling people with less money and training to begin consuming.

4. The disruptive innovation creates a whole new value network. The new consumers typically purchase the product through new channels and use the product in new venues.

Disruptive Innovations are a fundamentally different way of thinking. It is not just about making a better mousetrap, but rethinking the job-to-be-done, and coming with completely different options. For example, if our objective is to provide computing to the non-users in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), then instead of thinking about thick desktops, one could look at thin clients and server-centric computing, along with open-source software to present a price point which would be 70% or more lower. This is a solution which will not appeal to the power users who are accustomed to having all the processing power and storage on the computer they use. But the solution would be attractive to people who otherwise face the prospect of not using computing at all.

When I started IndiaWorld (India’s first Internet portal) in March 1995, I did not understand the theory of disruptive innovations. But as I look back on the success of our venture, it was in no small measure due to the fact that we targeted a nonconsumption market – Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) – with our product (news and information about India) via a convenient, alternate distribution medium (the Internet and web browser, rather than print or television). Being able to get India news a couple times a day with a few clicks was a huge change from reading India Today delivered a week late or watching the news roundup on TV on the weekend. Most of the NRIs (especially in the US) had reasonably fast connections to the Internet from work or their university. So,even though our product was not good enough as compared to reading the daily newspaper, it delighted the NRIs because now for the first time they could know almost-immediately what has happening in India.

Creating disruptive innovations are what I think offers entrepreneurs the greatest potential for success. Answering Christensen’s questions makes entrepreneurs focus on what of their ideas and solutions are actually disruptive innovations.

Tomorrow: …for the Bottom of the Pyramid…

Related Entries: [All]
TECH TALK: My Mental Model: The Road Ahead [December 19, 2003]
TECH TALK: My Mental Model: …to Bridge Divides. [December 18, 2003]
TECH TALK: My Mental Model: …with Local Distribution… [December 17, 2003]
TECH TALK: My Mental Model: …of Integrated Solutions… (Part 2) [December 16, 2003]
TECH TALK: My Mental Model: …of Integrated Solutions… [December 15, 2003]

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