The Tiny Car
Atanu pointed me to this The Seattle Times story about Rick and Bryan Woodbury's creation:
At 39 inches wide and 8 feet 5 inches long, it's skinnier than some motorcycles and shorter than many a living-room couch. It runs on batteries, not gas. And, if the thing ever makes it out of Spokane and into consumer production — a big if — this two-person, commuter concept car could very well alleviate air pollution, cruise past freeway congestion, shimmy through urban gridlock and actually find a parking spot.
Top speed, 130 miles per hour. About 80 miles per charge. Three hours to completely recharge in a dryer socket, 10 minutes to recharge 80 percent in a high-current, 200-amp socket.
The car currently costs USD 80,000. Mass-producted, it is likely to come down to a quarter of that. The question: will people buy?
Sometimes I feel like them with the products that we have created. Good, neat ideas, but will people buy them?!
The Future of Tech
Business Week has a special report on a topic that has been discussed a lot since the HBR article by Nicholas Carr.
It's true that some parts of info tech have probably seen their best days. Personal computers are so pervasive that they may not top 4% sales growth in coming years. Ditto servers, and mainstream corporate software may never reach double-digit growth again. Yet we've seen this movie before. The same thing happened to mainframe computers in the 1970s, as buyers flocked to new, cheaper minicomputers from Data General Corp. and Digital Equipment (DEC ) Corp. In the 1980s, minis declined as buyers poured many more billions of dollars into cheaper, more flexible PCs and servers.
Fact is, tech has always has worked this way. Like Italian mansions built with marble from the Roman Forum, new markets emerge on the foundation of maturing technologies. Lower prices make mass markets out of niche products. And mass markets inevitably mutate and evolve into something unforeseeable. Only by the mid-1990s, when tens of millions of people had PCs, did it make sense to connect them, giving rise to what became the World Wide Web. Today, millions of people have laptops and handheld computers -- thus spurring rapid development of wireless networks. And more than 20 million U.S. homes have broadband connections. As fast Net access takes off, it will spark altogether new ways of using the Internet that we're just beginning to imagine today.
Simply put, tech hasn't settled down yet. Its days of maturity may be decades away. The IT revolution may share many parallels with previous transformative technologies such as railroads and electricity, but it differs in one key way: The underlying technologies not only aren't slowing down, they're accelerating. Computer-chip performance keeps doubling every 18 months, and disk-drive capacity and Internet-connection speeds are improving even faster. That's spurring new products, from MP3 and DVD players to Web services for corporations, that are disrupting industries from entertainment to health care. Says Intel Corp. Chairman Andrew S. Grove, who has worked in tech for more than 40 years: "The rate of change in technology is as much today as any time in my experience."
I got a call recently from an Economic Times correspondent on my views on the HBR article. I said that is is very important to keep the context in mind - for India, the article is irrelevant. We haven't even started adopting IT! We need to make IT part of our DNA in this country. My esitmate is that 3 million SMEs in India employing over 30 million people barely use 1-1.5 PCs on an average. (India has a total installed base of about 8 million PCs.) So, we are far away from discussing if IT matters - we need to be discussing ways on how IT can be made affordable to ensure it becomes a utility for companies in India and similar emerging countries. That is where the next set of tech opportunities lie.
Will write a Tech Talk series on this shortly.
Assuming that safety is a problem they've addressed (the web site claims so) I'd consider buying the Tango at a lower price if it could overcome several practical issues: Ease of recharging at a remote site, more storage for trips to the grocery store with a spouse, and ease of service (don't want to send the car up to Seattle every time). I live in San Francisco where parking is a major issue and stop and go traffic is the norm. The Tango would do beautifully here if it can climb our hills!
Posted by Ron BellThere is one little hitch with the Tango and that is it is too costly. For current production quantities, assuming that there are no distortions in the pricing of the components that go into the Tango, it is significantly more costly than the alternatives.
The question we need to address first if there are any pricing distortions in the components. That is, are there taxes or subsidies that distort the true cost of production? I suspect that there aren't any taxes aside from the normal sales taxes etc. There may be some subsidies in terms of grants and other help from corporations and foundations. So the $80,000 price tag is a lower bound on true estimate of the social cost of the car.
The analysis of whether the Tango is a socially beneficial innovation, we need to weigh the social costs against the social benefits. The social costs (or benefits) are defined as the sum of the private costs (or benefits) plus the cost (or benefits) of any negative (or positive) externalities.
To illustrate that, suppose that the cost of building a Tango is $80K. That is the social cost if there are no negative externalities in production. Now assume that there are positive externalities in consumption. That is, suppose you could estimate the benefits of lower congestion, better environmental impact (compared to the alternative mode of transportation), etc., and suppose that was, say, $20K over the lifetime of the Tango. Then, it is alright for society to internalize that consumption externality by subsidizing the cost of the Tango by that amount.
Together with that subsidy, the price which a consumer will have to pay is only $60K.
For $60K, you can get a pretty decent car. In fact, you could get a car that is sufficiently high-tech that it is zero-emission or close to it. So even with a subsidy, currently the Tango will fail the cost over benefit test.
There will always be some who would be willing to pay a premium for the Tango mistakenly believing that they are doing the right thing. But I am not convinced that it is socially beneficial. The argument continues to be valid even if larger production quantities reduce the costs (through scale economies) by half to only about $40K.
Atanu
Posted by Atanu DeyPeople who do not think far enough ahead inevitably have worries near at hand.
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